Data as of October 27, 2026, 6:40 p.m. (Brasília time). Figures for October 27 are preliminary.
In a nutshell
- Fact: The Ibovespa closed at 176,608.23 points On October 26, a drop of 13,88%, and the dollar rose 8,36%, R$ 5.4066.
- Reason: The result of the runoff election defied investors' expectations of a different winner and a more favorable fiscal agenda, according to CNN Brasil.
- To the reader: On October 27, the market recovered some of the dollar's value, but the Ibovespa continued to edge down by 0.44%. The revaluation is not yet over.
O Ibovespa After the Election It fell 13,88% on October 26, 2026, to 176,608.23 points. The dollar rose 8.36% to R$ 5.4066. It was the index’s biggest daily drop since 2020, according to CNN Brasil.
The move came during the first trading session following the runoff election. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was elected with 51.79% of the valid votes, and Flávio Bolsonaro received 48.21%, according to InfoMoney. The text read does not include the official results from the TSE.
What happened during the trading session on October 26?
B3 triggered the circuit breaker, a mechanism that halts trading following a sharp drop, at around 9:57 a.m. The suspension lasted 30 minutes and, according to InfoMoney, was the first since March 2020.
The B3 rule provides for a one-hour suspension if the decline reaches 15% after trading resumes. The index did lose about 15% during the day, but the source does not confirm a second trigger.
The index ranged from a high of 205,088.74 points to a low of 169,516.43, with a trading volume of R$ 76.90 billion. Despite the decline, the Ibovespa was up 9.61% for the year and down 5.22% in October, according to InfoMoney.
| Indicator | October 26 | October 27 (tentative) |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 176,608.23 points (-13,881 TP3T) | 175,831.92 points (-0.44%) |
| Commercial dollar | R$ 5.4066 (+8.36%) | R$ 5.3488 (-1.07%) |
Sources: InfoMoney (Oct. 26), CNN Brasil (Oct. 26 and 27), and Forbes Brasil (Oct. 27).
Why did the dollar and interest rates rise at the same time?
According to CNN Brasil, investors were betting on a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro and a more favorable fiscal agenda. With Lula’s reelection, the market began to reassess the risk posed by public finances.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan described the pressure as “a shift in stance, because the market was betting on another candidate,” according to Forbes Brazil. He said the government intends to aim for the midpoint of the fiscal target, an issue to be discussed with Congress.
Futures interest rates, which reflect the rate the market expects for the coming years, rose unevenly. The January 2027 contract rose 0.248 percentage points to 13.723%. The January 2029 and January 2031 contracts rose 2.655 and 2.665 points, to 15.250% and 15.240%, according to InfoMoney.
The 2032 Fixed-Rate Treasury reached 15.78%, according to the same source. When the rate rises, the price of a fixed-rate bond that has already been purchased falls on a mark-to-market basis. Those who hold the bond to maturity receive the contracted rate.
How did the Ibovespa perform in dollars?
Investors in reais saw the index fall 13.88%. With the dollar trading at 8.36% higher on the same day, the decline in dollar terms was about 20,5%, according to the blog's calculations.
The declines were uneven, according to InfoMoney. Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) fell 58.23%, the Bank do Brasil (BBAS3), down 29.33%, and Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4), down 13.66%. Petrobras (PETR4) fell 8.18%.
Only eight stocks closed higher, including Suzano (SUZB3), up 10.08%, and Vale (VALE3), up 4.01%. Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard attributed the decline in actions “speculative trading,” according to InfoMoney.
Who is assessing the situation, and what has changed since October 27?
Bruno Funchal, CEO of Bradesco Asset Management, said that “the market will reassess everything,” according to InfoMoney. Citigroup and BCA Research downgraded their recommendations for Brazilian assets, according to CNN Brasil, which does not name the analysts.
On October 27, the dollar fell 1.07% to R$ 5.3488, and the Ibovespa closed at 175,831.92 points, based on preliminary data, according to Forbes Brazil. Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo said the institution will intervene in the foreign exchange market if there are disruptions.
The Central Bank sold 80,000 currency swap contracts to roll over the November 3 maturity, according to Forbes Brasil. Flávio Bolsonaro had not acknowledged the result, according to InfoMoney.
What can the reader check and follow up on?
Closing prices and the circuit breaker rule are available on the B3 website, and the reference dollar rate (PTAX) is available from the Central Bank. The official results are available on the TSE website. To understand the term, see What is the Ibovespa?.
| Date | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| November 3 | Maturity of currency swaps, with rollover by the Central Bank | Forbes Brazil |
| No specific date | Discussion of the fiscal target with Congress | Forbes Brazil |
| No specific date | Appointment of the new administration's economic team | CNN Brazil |
💡 Recommended reading: Yield curve.
Disclaimer: This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, legal advice, or tax advice. Please verify the information through official channels and, if necessary, consult a qualified professional.
Sources consulted
- InfoMoney, live coverage from October 26: market closings, circuit breakers, futures interest rates, stocks, and election results
- CNN Brasil, Market Report, October 27: reason for the movement, the dollar on 10/26, and credit rating downgrades
- Forbes Brazil, as of October 27: preliminary data, Durigan, Galípolo, and swaps
Featured article: InfoMoney.
