Data as of October 25, 2026, 7:51 a.m. (Brasília time).
The runoff election is this Sunday. In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) received 47.03% of the valid votes and Lula (PT) received 45.16%, according to the TSE. The official results will be released by the court and are not included in this text.
In a nutshell
- Fact: in the 2027 Budget, R$ 2.5428 billion (90.0%) of R$ 2.8260 billion Primary expenditures are mandatory, according to the Chamber of Deputies.
- Reason: gross debt reached 82.91 TP3T of GDP in August, and interest rates rose by 6.5 percentage points over the course of the year.
- To the reader: Some of the proposals put forward by Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula are already law or provisional measures; others are campaign promises with no disclosed cost.
What does the 2027 budget hold for the next president?
On the day of the runoff election, the 2027 budget leaves little room for new promises: 90,0% Primary expenditures are mandatory. The pressure stems from gross debt, which reached 82.9% of GDP in August.
The bill, submitted to Congress on August 31, provides for R$ 2.8260 billion in primary expenditures, which exclude interest and debt service. According to the Chamber’s Budget Advisory Office (CONOF), R$ 2.5428 billion are mandatory, such as pensions and wages. The R$ 283.2 billion (10.0%) The remainder is discretionary, and 44.8 billion of that amount has already been set aside for tax-related congressional amendments.
The government reports 91.7% in mandatory expenditures. According to our calculations, the difference stems from the base figure. The percentage is derived by adding R$ 592.4 billion in transfers to states and municipalities to the total of R$ 3,418.5 billion.
Congress has yet to vote on the bill. Excluding the statutory exclusions of R$ 64.7 billion, the projected primary balance is R$ 18.6 billion, below the target floor (R$ 36.6 billion). With these exclusions included, it reaches R$ 83.4 billion.
How large are the public debt and household debt?
General Government Gross Debt includes the federal government, the INSS, states, and municipalities. It reached 82.91 TP3T of GDP in August, compared with 82.6% in July, according to the Bank Central and the Reuters survey, which had forecast 83.0%. No public data for September has been released to date.
From January through August, the figure rose 4.2 percentage points. Interest rates contributed 6.5 points and net securities issuance, 1.5 points; nominal GDP growth and the exchange rate offset part of this effect.
Among families, the PEIC survey, conducted by the CNC, shows 81,7% with debts due in September, compared with 82% in August. The CNC notes that the indicator measures perception, not over-indebtedness. The delinquency rate was 29.6% in September.
How do Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula propose to deal with the debt?
The proposals are at different stages: some are legal texts, while others are campaign ads. The candidates are listed in alphabetical order, following the same format.
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) On September 23, he presented the SOS Brasil plan. The fund would have the Treasury buy debt owed by individuals to banks and renegotiate it at lower interest rates. According to SBT News, the grace period would be six months for individuals and one year for companies. He cited federal government real estate, oil royalties, and securitization as sources of funding, but the fund’s value is not mentioned in the reports cited.
Regarding fiscal adjustment, Economic Coordinator Daniella Marques said on August 3 that the plan calls for cutting spending by 1.5% of GDP, about R$ 190 billion (2025 GDP). The campaign states that the cut targets excessive salaries and fraud, without breaking it down by measure.
Lula (PT) On October 21, the government signed into law a bill that forgives federal debts owed by individual microentrepreneurs (MEIs). According to a government statement, the forgiveness takes effect on January 1, 2027, and is automatic. It requires making on-time payments of the DAS—the MEI’s monthly payment slip—for six months and withdrawing any legal action regarding the debt.
The figures differ: the government cited R$ 12.6 billion on October 13 and R$ 18.7 billion, for more than 3.6 million CNPJs, on October 21. According to *O Povo*, the PGFN classified 86% of the R$ 12.6 billion as difficult to recover. There is no official confirmation of the actual waiver.
Desenrola 3.0, established by Provisional Measure 1,393/2026 on September 25, authorizes the federal government to purchase debt portfolios at a minimum discount of 90%. The maximum cost is R$ 15 billion, covered by a reallocation of expenditures, according to Minister Bruno Moretti. On October 13, the Ministry of Finance included approximately R$ 6 billion in bank debts owed by MEIs in this phase.
On October 21, Lula also submitted to Congress a constitutional amendment proposal (PEC) calling for free public transportation on weekends and holidays. The government estimates R$ 12 billion in 2027, by allocating at least 26.8% of the tax amendments, which total R$ 44.8 billion.
Economists interviewed by g1 on October 24 see shortcomings on both sides. Murilo Viana, an expert in public finances, cited the “enormous risk of transferring private debt to a public institution” in the proposal to use Caixa. Ricardo Hammoud, of FGV Ibre, questioned the idea of increasing spending based on higher tax revenues and said he sees no room today to cut taxes.
| Proposal | What is known | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio: Switch to Pix | Announced on October 20; no rules, amount, or cost specified; outside the plan filed with the TSE | Congress in Focus |
| Flávio: Perse's Comeback | Promised on October 20; the program ended after reaching the R$ cap of 15 billion; the cost of resuming the program was not disclosed | Forbes/Reuters |
| Flávio: End of Split Payment | As stated by Daniella Marques on October 6; the Ministry of Finance supports the mechanism; no impact on tax revenue has been observed | Pernambuco Daily |
| Lula: expanding the Bolsa Família | No figure has been released; the 2027 budget allocates R$ 155.8 bi to the program | CONOF |
| Lula: Fuel Subsidies | There is no publicly available data on the cost as of October 25 | — |
What should you check on official channels before taking action?
- MEI Debt Forgiveness: Valid only starting January 1, 2027. Check the deadlines and conditions on the PGFN website and at gov.br.
- Desenrola 3.0: The auction was scheduled for November, and the disbursement for 2027, according to Moretti. For MEIs, the Ministry of Finance says no action is necessary at this time.
- 2027 Budget: The figures may change before the vote in Congress.
- Election: The official result is the one released by the TSE.
Golden rule: Never pay in advance to anyone who promises to grant you a waiver, a discount, or money that is already yours.
Disclaimer: This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, legal advice, or tax advice. Please verify the current regulations through official channels and, if necessary, consult a qualified professional.
Sources consulted
- Chamber of Deputies, An In-Depth Analysis of the 2027 PLOA (CONOF): expenditures, budget target, amendments, Bolsa Família
- Money Times/Reuters: Gross debt in August, based on data from the Central Bank
- Economic Activity: Breakdown of the debt and Flávio Bolsonaro's plan
- Folha de Pernambuco: September Peic, from the CNC
- BPMoney: August Peic, from the CNC
- Gov Agency (Ministry of Finance): Desenrola 3.0 for MEIs
- Gazeta do Povo: enactment of the MEI law
- O Liberal/Estadão Conteúdo: Government statement on MEI and PEC
- BPMoney: Zero-Rate Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC)
- The People: PGFN's assessment of MEI debts
- Acessa.com: Cost and Funding for Desenrola 3.0
- SBT News: SOS Brazil
- Forbes Brazil/Reuters: Perse
- Congress in Focus: Vira Pix
- Pernambuco Daily: split payment
- g1: Economists' assessment of the proposals
Featured article: g1, “Who Pays the Bill? Economists Analyze Lula and Flávio’s Promises in the Face of a Tight Budget,” by Ismael Jales, October 24, 2026.
