Data as of October 25, 2026, at 11:14 a.m. (Brasília time). The Treasury Direct rates cited are the opening rates from Friday, October 23. The results of the second round are not yet known.
In a nutshell
- Fact: At the opening on October 23, the 2037 Fixed-Rate Bond with Semiannual Interest payments fell from 12.98% to 12.90% per year. The 2032 Fixed-Rate Bond also stood at 12.90%, and the 2029 bond at 12.77%.
- Reason: InfoMoney attributes the decline to October's IPCA-15 figure of 0.32%—which was below the projected 0.43%—and to the second-round polls.
- To the reader: On Sundays, the rates on the Treasury website are for reference only. Orders placed now will use the opening prices for Monday, October 26.
Treasury Direct Rates: What Changed on Friday (the 23rd)?
The Treasury Direct rates fell on Friday, October 23, 2026, the last trading day before the runoff election. The rate is the annual yield that the Treasury promises to those who purchase the bond on that day. The 2037 Fixed-Rate Bond with Semiannual Interest payments fell 0.08 percentage points (p.p.), from 12,98% to 12,90%, compared with Thursday's close, according to InfoMoney.
The 2032 fixed-rate bond fell 0.06 percentage points to 12.90%, and the 2029 bond declined 0.02 percentage points to 12.77%. EuQueroInvestir, as of 11:55 a.m., reported that the 2032 rate fell by 0.04 percentage points and the 2029 rate rose slightly by 0.02 percentage points. Sources differ by up to 0.04 percentage points in the change, but agree on Friday’s rates.
For IPCA+ bonds, which pay a real interest rate plus inflation as measured by the IPCA, the day saw little change. The IPCA+ 2050 yield fell from IPCA + 6.51% at Thursday’s close to IPCA + 6.48%, according to InfoMoney. Over the week, starting October 16, the decline in this security reached 0.26 percentage points., from 6,74% to 6,48%.
Another basis for comparison changes the picture: EuQueroInvestir uses 6.63% as the starting point for the same security and reports a 0.15 percentage point decline for the day. The difference stems from Thursday’s reference figure, which EuQueroInvestir does not specify.
Why did the polls show a decline before the runoff election?
InfoMoney attributes the decline to the IPCA-15, the preliminary official inflation figure. It rose 0.32% in October, below the 0.43% projected in a Reuters survey and the 0.70% recorded in September. Over the past 12 months, it rose from 4.47% to 4.62%, below the expected 4.73%.
On October 23, economist Gustavo Rostelato of Armor Capital noted that much of the surprise came from airfares, which fell by 9.24%. In his view, the data is unlikely to trigger significant revisions to inflation expectations. There is no publicly available data that breaks down the contribution of the IPCA-15, surveys, and the external environment to the decline.
The global economic outlook remained on the radar. Brent crude oil had risen above US$ 114 per barrel, and the 10-year Treasury bond—a U.S. government security—was yielding 4.98%. The data is from the morning of October 23, according to InfoMoney.
The Selic, the benchmark interest rate, stands at 13,751 TP3T per year since September 16. It was the fifth consecutive 0.25 percentage point cut, according to Meus Dividendos and Diário do Grande ABC. The next Copom meeting is scheduled for November 4, according to Meus Dividendos.
The electoral landscape also played a role. In the first round, on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) received 47.03% of the valid votes. Lula (PT) received 45.16%, according to the TSE’s tally as reported by Money Times. Valid votes exclude blank and invalid ballots.
The October 22 Datafolha poll (registration no. BR-09709/2026, margin of two points) showed a tie at 50% between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in valid votes. The October 24 Datafolha poll showed 51% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 49% for Lula, according to ND Mais. The margin of error is two points, and the differences fall within that margin.
Most of the decline occurred right after the first round. The 2032 Fixed-Rate Bond fell from 14.21% (October 2 close) to 12.71% (morning of October 6), a drop of 1.50 percentage points, according to InfoMoney. At the opening on October 5, the decline was the second-largest single-day drop in the Treasury series, which began in 2005.
According to Ricardo Farias, fixed-income manager at Fator, on October 5 the market was pricing in a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro. The 2037 Fixed-Rate Bond traded at 12.79% on October 6, 12.98% on October 22, and 12.90% on October 23.
How does the drop in rates affect those who already hold the security?
When the interest rate falls, the price of the security rises, and the opposite is true when the interest rate rises. This effect is known as mark-to-market: the value of the security tracks the price the market pays for it on that day. According to Tesouro Direto, anyone who holds the security until maturity receives the contracted yield, regardless of fluctuations along the way.
An example from InvestNews: An investment of R$ 10,000 at 6:00 p.m. on Thursday in the 2037 Fixed-Rate Bond with Semiannual Interest purchased approximately 11.43 bonds. The price was R$ 874.90. With Friday’s price of R$ 879.10, the value reaches R$ 10,048.01, a gain of R$ 48.01 (0.48%), as recalculated by this blog. The gain is gross—excluding taxes and custody fees—and is realized only upon sale before maturity.
Managers interviewed by InfoMoney—who remain unnamed in the article—say that a victory by Flávio Bolsonaro is likely to boost the stock market, the real, and government bonds, though to a lesser extent than in the first round. In their view, a victory by Lula would trigger a sharper decline, one that could wipe out recent gains.
This is a market analysis, not a projection by this blog. Voting takes place from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, and results will begin to be released at 5 p.m., according to CNN Brasil. No results are included in this text.
How much does it cost, and what should you check before using Tesouro Direto?
Check Monday's opening price before placing any orders. The rules below are taken from the official Tesouro Direto website.
| Item | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Custody fee (B3) | 0.20% per year; tax-exempt Selic Treasury bonds up to R$ 10,000 per CPF | Treasury Direct |
| Income tax | 22.5% for up to 180 days; 20% from 181 to 360; 17.5% from 361 to 720; 15% for more than 720 | Treasury Direct |
| IOF | Redemptions within 30 days only | Treasury Direct |
| Institution fee | Freely agreed upon; ranking on the official website | Treasury Direct |
| Timetable | Weekdays, 9:30 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.; outside these hours, times are for reference only | Treasury Direct |
| Floating-rate alternative | 2031 Selic Treasury Bond: Selic + 0.0989% per year | InfoMoney |
What's included in the price: The 2032 Prefixated rate fell from 14.21% on October 2 to 12.90% on October 23. Alternatives: There is no publicly available data in this analysis to compare CDBs, LCIs, and LCAs with equivalent terms.
Golden rule: Be wary of anyone who asks for an advance payment to release your funds, as the official fees are listed in the table. Purchases and redemptions must be made through the Investor Portal or through an authorized bank or brokerage firm. To check fees, visit the “Bond Yields” and “Price and Fee History” pages at tesourodireto.com.br.
💡 Recommended reading: What Are Interest Rates?.
Disclaimer: This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, legal advice, or tax advice. Please verify the current regulations through official channels and, if necessary, consult a qualified professional.
Sources consulted
- Tesouro Direto: Rules and Regulations: custody, income tax (IR), financial transactions tax (IOF), business hours, and mark-to-market
- InfoMoney, rates as of October 23: rates, IPCA-15, Rostelato
- InfoMoney, rates as of October 6: Post-first-round decline and remarks by Ricardo Farias
- InfoMoney: Scenarios for the Second Round: managers' perspective
- EuQueroInvestir, October 23: 11:55 a.m. reading
- CNN Brazil: Datafolha poll from October 22 and voting hours
- ND More: Datafolha, October 24
- Money Times: first-round results
- My Dividends: Selic and Copom schedule
- Diário do Grande ABC: Selic rate cut on September 16
Featured article: InvestNews.
