Data as of October 28, 2026, 5:50 p.m. (Brasília time). The market close on October 28 and the Fed's interest rate decision had not been reported as of this time.
In a nutshell
- Fact: The Ibovespa fell 13,88% On October 26, the 176,608.23 points, and retreated further 0,51% On October 27, the 175,710.05 points.
- Reason: The market reacted to the results of the second round of the presidential election. Analysts quoted in the press point to concerns about fiscal policy, and this interpretation is attributed to them.
- To the reader: Almost all of the loss occurred on a single day. What happens next depends on tax decisions—the timing of which has not yet been determined—and the third-quarter financial results.
Ibovespa Drop: What Happened Between October 26 and 28
A Ibovespa decline of 13,88% On October 26, 2026, the index posted its biggest daily loss since March 2020, according to Exame. It was the first trading session following the second round of the presidential election.
B3 suspended trading for 30 minutes under the circuit breaker mechanism, which had not been triggered since March 2020, according to InfoMoney. The day's biggest drop reached 17,34%, according to *Gazeta do Povo*.
The market capitalization of companies listed on B3 fell from R$ 5.684 trillion on October 23 to R$ 4.950 trillion on October 26. This represents a decline of 12,91%, or 734 billion R$, according to the consulting firm Elos Ayta.
On October 27, the index fell 0,51% and closed at 175,710.05 points, the lowest level since August, according to Agência Brasil. At the opening on October 28, the Minhas Economias index fell 0.50% to 174,829 points, a figure that has not yet been independently confirmed. As of the time of this edition, no public data is available regarding the closing price on October 28.
What does the market attribute the decline to?
Lula was reelected with 51,79% of the valid votes, against 48,21% by Flávio Bolsonaro, according to InfoMoney. The official figures are available on the TSE website.
According to Gazeta do Povo, some investors were betting on Flávio Bolsonaro and a stricter fiscal policy. The reaction was also linked to fears of an expansionary fiscal policy, which would make it difficult to cut interest rates. Rodrigo Miotto of Nippur Finance said, “Many importers were not protected by hedging transactions.”.
On October 26, Bruno Funchal, CEO of Bradesco Asset Management, stated that “the market will reassess everything,” according to InfoMoney. UBS believes the government will face challenges in regaining market confidence, including the need for a fiscal package with concrete figures.
There is another perspective: Fábio Murad, of Wiser Asset, believes that the government’s continued tenure alone will not cause a permanent decline. In his view, upcoming fiscal decisions will be decisive.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said the government is aiming for the midpoint of the fiscal target and will discuss the issue with Congress, according to Agência Brasil. The president of the Bank Gabriel Galípolo, head of the Central Bank, stated that the institution could intervene in the foreign exchange market if it found any irregularities.
Who's up, who's down, and what's changed with the dollar and interest rates?
| Action | Change on October 26 | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Magazine Luiza | -58,23% | InfoMoney |
| B3 | -36,28% | InfoMoney |
| Bank of Brazil | -29,33% | InfoMoney |
| Bradesco | -21,70% | InfoMoney |
| Suzano | +10,08% | InfoMoney |
| Embraer | +8,89% | InfoMoney |
| Vale | +4,01% | InfoMoney |
InfoMoney attributes the gains by Suzano, Embraer, and Vale to the stronger dollar, which benefits exporters.
The dollar rose by between 8,21% e 8,95% on October 26, according to the source. Exame and InfoMoney reported 8.21% (about R$ 5.40), and Gazeta do Povo reported 8.95% (R$ 5.4232). On October 27, the spot dollar fell 1,07%, the R$ 5,349, according to Agência Brasil.
In dollars, the Ibovespa's decline on October 26 was 21,13%, according to Elos Ayta, compared to 13.88% in reais. The difference is 7.25 percentage points, and it primarily affects those who measure returns in dollars, such as foreign investors.
Futures interest rates (DI contracts, which reflect expectations for the interest rate) rose to 3 percentage points on October 26, according to Gazeta do Povo. On October 27, the DI for January 2028 fell from 14.905% to 14.36%, and the January 2030 contract fell from 15.28% to 14.84%, according to 40graus.
The National Treasury was active in the bond market. InfoMoney reports a repurchase of R$ 7.1 billion in fixed-rate bonds, while 40graus reports an injection of R$ 14.8 billion. The figures differ and could not be verified through an official source.
A Practical Guide: What to Check and What to Monitor
The decline on October 26 is already reflected in the closing prices for October 27. The data available does not allow us to say what happens from that point on.
Who has actions or equity funds can check their brokerage statements or the fund’s prospectus to see their exposure to banks, the retail sector, and exporters, which have reacted differently. Official data is available on the websites of B3, the Central Bank, the National Treasury, and the TSE.
What to Watch
| Date | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| October 28 | Fed interest rate decision; rate expected to remain unchanged (result not found) | My Savings |
| October 28, after the market closes | 3Q26 Financial Results for Santander Brasil and Intelbras | Forbes (BTG calendar) |
| October 29 | Ambev (before the market opens); Multiplan and Vale (after the market closes) | Forbes (BTG calendar) |
| October 30 | Usiminas and Irani (before the opening) | Forbes (BTG calendar) |
| No date | Fiscal measures cited by Durigan | Agência Brasil |
💡 Recommended reading: What Is the Ibovespa and Why Is It Important?.
Disclaimer: This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, legal advice, or tax advice. Please verify the current regulations through official channels and, if necessary, consult a qualified professional.
Sources consulted
- InfoMoney: October 26 closing prices, circuit breaker, gains and losses per share, and analysis
- Gazeta do Povo: sharpest decline, dollar, interest rate futures, and attributed causes
- Agência Brasil: October 27 closure, Durigan and Galípolo
- Exam: Elos Ayta study on the decline in the dollar and market value
- 40 degrees: Future interest rates and Treasury activity on October 27
- My Savings: October 28 market open and expectations for the Fed
- Forbes Brazil: BTG Pactual's 3Q26 earnings release schedule
Featured articles: Agência Brasil e Gazeta do Povo.
