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Petrobras Considers Distributing 92% of Profits: Petrobras (PETR3, PETR4) is evaluating the possibility of distributing the entire dividends for the 2023 financial year. This decision, which surprised the market, was mentioned by the National Treasury Secretary, Rogério Ceron, indicating the likelihood of the government allowing the distribution of all available resources.
If this full distribution takes place, Petrobras' payout, which represents the proportion of net profit distributed in the form of dividends or interest on equity, would reach 92.49%. This figure exceeds the 89.6% distributed by the state-owned company in 2022. So far, taking into account half of last year's extraordinary dividends, the indicator for 2023 stands at 74.88%. These figures were calculated by Einar Rivero, a consultant at Elos Ayta.
In the first quarter of this year, Petrobras recorded a net profit of R$ 23.7 billion and announced a distribution of R$ 13.45 billion. This would result in a payout of 56.8%. Another indicator that will be impacted by the possible total distribution of extraordinary dividends is the dividend yield, which represents the share's return on dividends alone. With this full distribution, the dividend yield would increase by around 4.4 percentage points to 23.44%.
These estimates were provided by Victor Bueno, partner and analyst at actions from Nord Investimentos. Bueno also projected that over the next few years Petrobras' dividend return could decrease considerably. According to his projections based on data compiled by Bloomberg, the dividend for the 2026 financial year could reach "only" 9.29%.
The projected figures for the dividend yield of Petrobras shares with the distribution of ordinary dividends, 50% and 100% of extraordinary dividends have been disclosed as shown in the table below:
| Dividend Yield | 50% Extraordinary Dividends | 100% of Extraordinary Dividends |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 14,51% | 18,98% |
| 2024 (projection) | 7,74% | 10,33% |
| 2025 (projection) | 5,33% | 7,11% |
| 2026 (projection) | 5,57% | 7,43% |
In 2022, the dividend yield of the preferred share (PETR4) was 68.32%. That year, Petrobras benefited from the increase in oil prices and was the world's largest dividend payer in the second quarter. It's worth noting that Bueno's calculations to reach the 23.4% dividend yield in 2023 consider the recent price of PETR4, not the price for shareholders who acquired the paper at the beginning of the previous year.
As for the decision to buy or sell Petrobras shares, there are differing opinions among analysts. While some see the stock as attractive to long-term investors due to its cash generation capacity, others consider that it has lost its appeal due to volatility and the direction of expansion into sectors with lower returns than the core business, such as renewable energy and refining. Phil Soares, head of stock analysis from Órama, expresses this view, while Victor Bueno, from Nord, believes that the risk associated with Petrobras shares is too high to be compensated by the current return, suggesting that it is not worth including the company's shares in dividend portfolios.
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