Bank Central Mantém Selic em 10.5%: O Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central (BC) decidiu, de forma unânime, manter a taxa básica de juros (Selic) em 10,5% ao ano. A decisão, anunciada nesta quarta-feira (19), interrompe um ciclo de sete cortes consecutivos iniciado em agosto do ano passado, quando a taxa estava em 13,75%.
Main points
- Unanimous decisionAll nine Copom members voted to maintain the Selic rate at 10.5%.
- Economic scenarioThe decision was influenced by the resilience of domestic economic activity, higher inflation projections and an uncertain global scenario.
- Political pressureThe decision was taken despite pressure from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a further rate cut.
- Inflation expectationsThe Central Bank stressed the need to maintain a contractionary monetary policy in order to consolidate the disinflation process and anchor inflation expectations.
- Fiscal riskThe Central Bank closely monitors fiscal policy developments and their impact on monetary decisions and financial assets.
Decision Context
The decision to keep the Selic rate at 10.5% was taken against a backdrop of increased economic uncertainty, both domestically and internationally. Since the last Copom meeting in May, the exchange rate has gone from an average level of R$ 5.10 to R$ 5.40, while the Ibovespa has fallen by around 7.6%.
Market reactions
Copom's decision was in line with the expectations of the financial market, which was already predicting an end to the cycle of cuts. According to a survey carried out by Valor Data with 132 institutions, 123 expected the Selic to remain stable at 10.5%, while only nine predicted a further cut of 0.25 percentage points.
Political and fiscal pressure
O presidente Lula criticou publicamente a decisão do BC, afirmando que a taxa de juros não está ajustada à realidade da economia nacional. Lula argumentou que a economia está crescendo mais do que o esperado, gerando empregos e mantendo os preços sob controle, o que justificaria uma taxa de juros mais baixa.
The Central Bank also stressed the importance of a credible fiscal policy committed to debt sustainability in order to anchor inflation expectations and reduce the risk premiums on financial assets.
Future expectations
The Central Bank does not foresee any further cuts in the Selic rate and said that monetary policy should remain contractionary for long enough to consolidate the disinflation process and anchor inflation expectations around their targets. The monetary authority is pursuing a target of 3% for inflation, with a margin of 1.5 percentage points up or down.
Conclusion: Central Bank Maintains Selic at 10.5%
Maintaining the Selic rate at 10.5% reflects the Central Bank's caution in the face of a challenging economic scenario and political pressures. The decision aims to guarantee economic stability and anchor inflation expectations, even amid an environment of uncertainty and fiscal risks.
Sources
- In a unanimous decision, the Central Bank maintains the Selic rate at 10.5% and interrupts the cycle of falling interest rates | CNN Brasil, CNN Brazil.
- After ‘split’, Central Bank resumes unanimity and keeps Selic at 10.5% per year, even under pressure from Lula, O Globo.
- Central Bank keeps Selic at 10.5% per year with Galípolo aligned with Campos Neto - 19/06/2024 - Market - Folha, Folha de S.Paulo.
- Copom ignores pressure from Lula and keeps Selic at 10.5% per year | General, Brasil de Fato.
- Copom: in a unanimous decision, the Central Bank keeps the Selic rate at 10.5% and ends the cycle of cuts | Exame, Examination.
