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The interest futures are rising, affected by an environment challenging external and the expectation of a fiscal package from the government. Market forecasts already include a Selic close to 14% at the end of the cycle. Local and global uncertainties have a direct impact on investments and the confidence of financial agents. Prepare yourself to understand the main changes and challenges that are shaping the current economic scenario.
- Futures rise due to external pressure and expectations of a fiscal package.
- The market already expects the Selic to be close to 14% at the end of the cycle.
- Uncertainty over spending cuts increases investor distrust.
- Macroeconomic projections show a deterioration in estimates of inflation and dollar.
- Strategist sees possible positive window for local assets in the short term.
Future Interest Rate Increases: What to Expect?
Current Future Interest Scenario
The future interest rates are rising again in a complicated external environment for emerging countries. Expectations of government measures to reducing costs e save are crucial. The market is already pricing a Selic rate which can reach 14% at the end of the cycle, indicating a deterioration in financial projections. To better understand the Selic rate and its implications, it's worth taking a closer look.
The Impact of the External Scenario
The global situation is affecting developing countries like Brazil. Following the victory of Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the US elections, many investors are moving away from assets considered risky outside the US, generating additional pressure on the local market. A external situation is worsening and directly impacting the local economy.
Frustration with the stimulus measures of the China also contributes to this negative sentiment. The DXY index, which measures the strength of the dollar, was on the rise, indicating that the dollar is appreciating against other currencies, including the Brazilian real, which could affect the purchase of imported products and, consequently, the cost of living.
Selic Expectations
The rate of the Interbank Deposit (DI) for January 2026 rose from 13,095% to 13,115%while the rate for January 2027 went from 13,14% to 13,20%. The market already expects a Selic rate above 13,75% for the coming year, directly impacting your pocket. To understand how this relates to fixed and variable income scenarioIt's important to keep up with trends.
Spending Containment Measures
Uncertainty over the measures to curb spending is generating distrust in the financial market. Sources indicate that the cuts may be more modest than expected, which may not be enough to balance the public accounts.
Recently, President Lula criticized the financial market, suggesting that we shouldn't trust the opinions that circulate there, increasing uncertainty about the country's direction.
Macroeconomic Projections
Macroeconomic projections are not encouraging. The median estimate for inflation (IPCA) has risen to 4,62% in 2024 and 4,10% in 2025. Expectations for the dollar have also risen, indicating that you may need to spend more on imported goods. For more details on economic expectations, consult the Focus bulletin.
The Experts' View
Despite the challenging scenario, some experts believe there may be an opportunity on the horizon. Daniel Cunha, chief strategist at BGC Liquidez, suggests that, considering the price level and market position, there may soon be a more positive window for local assets.
He believes that expectations regarding the spending reduction package are so low that any announcement, even a modest one, could have a positive impact on the market. The perception that the government is doing something, even if it doesn't solve all the problems, could help improve investor confidence.
Comparison with the past
Cunha compares it to the beginning of the government, when the fiscal framework was presented. From the start, it was known that there were flaws, but that didn't stop prices from improving after the announcement. The expectation is that, even if the measures are insufficient, the discussion about them could have a positive effect in the short term.
The Performance of the Real
Since last Friday, the real has outperformed other currencies, suggesting that, despite external pressure, there is resilience in the Brazilian currency.
Liquidity in the Futures Market
Due to the Veterans Day holiday in the United States, there was no business on the stock market. TreasuriesThis resulted in reduced liquidity in the futures market, with the volume traded being significantly lower than the daily average.
Conclusion
The current future interest rates is marked by an environment challenging external and expectations of a fiscal package that has yet to materialize. A Selic close to 14% and the uncertainty surrounding the measures to contain spending are generating distrust in the financial market. Although experts see a possible window of opportunity for local assets, the situation requires constant vigilance and analysis. Be prepared for changes that could have a direct impact on your pocket and your financial decisions. To learn more about these topics and explore other finance-related issues, we invite you to visit learnaboutfinance.com.
Frequently Asked Questions
What led to the rise in future interest rates again?
The rise in future interest rates is the result of external pressure and expectations of the release of fiscal measures to contain spending.
What is the forecast for the Selic rate at the end of the cycle?
The market is already pricing a terminal Selic close to 14%. For more information on the Selic and its variationssee recent reviews.
How has Trump's victory affected the assets of emerging countries?
Trump's victory pushed investors away from risky assets, increasing pressure on emerging markets.
What are your expectations of the government's spending restraint measures?
Expectations are low, and many believe that the cuts will be modest and insufficient to balance public accounts.
What does Focus say about economic projections?
Focus points to a deterioration in projections for inflation and the dollar, with an increase in estimates for the following years.
